YouGov poll for The Sun newspaper. In a massive blow as the local election campaign moves towards its climax, support for the Lib Dems has slumped in their heartlands and target areas.
Polling in the 76 proposed new constituencies either held by the Lib Dems or winnable by them shows support for the party has fallen from 41% at the 2010 election to 24% now.
Even in the South of England, excluding London, which would include the Eastleigh constituency, support for the Lib Dems is down to 25%, with the Conservatives (34%) and Labour (26%) both profiting from the crash in Lib Dem support. UKIP are on 8% and The Greens on 6%.
If these results are repeated in 2015, the only Lib Dem cabinet minister to survive would be Ed Davey, who replaced Hedge End's MP Chris Huhne as energy secretary. Only seven Lib Dem MPs would be returned. Chris Huhne, Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, Vince Cable, Charles Kennedy, Menzies Campbell, they would all pay the price for misleading their voters on tuition fees, welfare cuts and NHS privatisation.
Paul Redding, the Conservative candidate trying to unseat sitting councillor and chair of Hedge End Town Council, Jane Welsh, in St John's ward will take some comfort from this poll, but last year's borough elections, and the recent by-election in Shamblehurst ward, show that local Lib Dems have a dogged resistance to national trends.
Other Borough seats, notably in Chandler's Ford, are more likely to fall to the Tories, and Labour's targets in Eastleigh and Bishopstoke will be looking more winnable in the light of this poll.
(Dead bird graphic from www.betternation.org)